June 24, 2025
The recent escalation between Iran and Israel—culminating in Israel’s June 13 strike—has already cost hundreds of civilian lives and pushed the region to the edge of a broader crisis with global consequences. The ceasefire announced on June 24 was therefore met with widespread relief, but it’s shaky at best. Ongoing violations and interference by outside actors could quickly reignite the conflict.
This uncertainty makes one thing clear: civil society needs to step in, alongside international organisations. Right now, political and military voices dominate the conversation, while the views and needs of ordinary people are being drowned out. Civil society – locally and globally – has a crucial role to play in pushing for peace and keeping human rights at the center of the discussion and, in doing so, offering a more holistic view.
Continued inaction by the international community, merely condemning the violence rather than taking concrete steps to end it, will also render meaningless all previous efforts to support Iranians in building peace and democracy - from enhancing knowledge of international law and human rights to investing in grassroots civil society organizations. Worse, it may lead Iranians to abandon the dream of a better future for their country, because they don’t see the values of human rights and democracy reflected in the ways in which the world engages with their plight.
On top of that, conflict makes it nearly impossible for social movements to survive. Authoritarian governments often use war to tighten control and silence dissent. In these conditions, progress on human rights and democracy can grind to a halt – or vanish entirely.
To make a real difference, civil society groups and international organizations need a clear understanding of what’s happening now in Iran and where things might be headed, however.
To aid in this effort, this policy brief starts off with a call to action for civil society and international actors, thereby outlining concrete avenues for engagement. Following on from this, it gives the foreign reader more understanding of realities on the ground and where these could be heading, by presenting altogether seven future scenarios that could unfold should the ceasefire not hold up. The final section summarises the main findings and offers recommendations to both civil society and international organisations for meaningful engagement with the conflict.
Scenario discussed:
