Following what U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have frequently portrayed as the successful targeting and elimination of Iranian leadership, it is becoming increasingly evident that such “decapitation” strategies produce effects contrary to their stated objectives. Rather than weakening the Islamic Republic, they appear to reinforce it—most notably by strengthening the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which now effectively dominates Iran’s political landscape. The IRGC’s power is evident, for instance, in the ways in which both President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are being sidelined regarding Iran’s response and strategies in the armed hostilities with Israel and the U.S.

This raises important questions. How should the international community respond to a political system in which the IRGC has clearly become dominant? Addressing this challenge requires a deeper, more nuanced understanding of the organization, its internal dynamics, and its rise to power within Iran, including through wartime dynamics.

To answer these questions, several reports have already emerged in foreign media. However, these often overlook key aspects, focusing primarily on either ideological narratives or military power, and are sometimes accompanied by calls for broader sanctions against Iran. Understanding the IRGC requires a more multifaceted approach, including perspectives from within Iran on the war rather than relying solely on more distant external viewpoints.

Drawing on contacts on the ground and evidence-based research, this policy brief provides such a perspective and links it to concrete steps policymakers can take to promote greater civic space in Iran.

In line with these objectives, this policy brief moves beyond simplified external narratives of command-and-control or elite targeting and instead examines the IRGC as an adaptive, embedded institution whose power is rooted in a combination of structural, societal, ideological, and wartime dynamics. The following seven drivers, which are at times mutually reinforcing, set out these mechanisms in detail and explain how they have collectively contributed to the IRGC’s growing dominance within Iran. They are followed by actionable recommendations for the international community to respond to Iran’s evolving political realities while supporting the expansion of civic space.