June 22, 2026
Iran’s Postwar Gray Condition
Reframing Plausible Scenarios After the 2026 War with the United States and Israel
With the United States and Iran engaged in peace negotiations following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding, it may appear that the dust is beginning to settle. However, the prospects for lasting stability remain uncertain. Beyond the fragility of Iran’s relations with the United States, the war has profoundly altered Iran’s domestic political dynamics. As a result, Iran finds itself in a gray zone from which several distinct futures may emerge. This policy report explores those possible trajectories and their implications.